Among major factors and the components defining dynamics of the prices for oil in the short-term and intermediate term period, we allocate the following:
Growth of world demand for oil and mineral oil (first of all from outside the USA and China)
Stock rate of oil and mineral oil at the basic importers of oil (first of all the USA)
Quotas and a policy of the OPEC
Extraction and export volumes in Iraq
The award for the instability, caused by a situation in the Near East
Speculative component and oil withdrawal in reserves (the USA, Asia)
Dollar easing
For the well-founded forecast of the prices, instead of on a coffee thick, it is necessary to estimate guessings how much long and significant influence these factors on the oil world market possess.
Growth of consumption of oil in the world is caused first of all by demand in the countries of Asia and revival of economy of the USA. Universal demand for oil on 2004 even is predicted by conservatives at level not below 80,6 million barr./with. The basic consumers - the USA, China, Japan on which it is necessary over third of consumed oil. Expected growth of consumption: China of +15 %, India of +10 %, the USA + 6 %, Japan of +5 %. In general if earlier only the situation in the USA defined demand for oil now there was a new region with huge and promptly growing requirements for oil - Asia. The gain of consumption of oil is provided more than on three quarters by growth of oil requirements of the Asian countries.
China is the most dynamical element of the oil market, rapid growth of demand for oil from outside which considerably changes a market situation. In the first quarter 2004 rates of increase of economy impress +9,8 %, and growth of demand for oil almost 20 %. However, preconditions of essential delay of dynamics under the influence of efforts of the government on economy cooling were outlined. Considering, growing inflation and a target reference point of the government - national economy growth in 2004 no more than 7 %, it is possible to expect toughening of a monetary policy of China. Increase of the rate and other рестрикционные measures (type of an interdiction for credits), in our opinion, all the same will lead to delay of economic growth, and accordingly and to decrease in oil requirements.
Separate consideration is deserved by a situation in the largest importer of oil - the USA. In the end of May the automobile season in the USA begins, and demand for gasoline accordingly will increase. And in this sector the situation remains strained - gasoline stocks should increase in the winter when fuel and black oil consumption is maximum, and requirements for gasoline are minimum. But because of a number of factors (reduction of quotas of the OPEC, preventive works and failures on НПЗ) gasoline stocks now below last year's on 2,3 %. The mite in a low stock rate of gasoline was brought by introduction of more rigid standards and restrictions on quality of gasoline that has automatically resulted as in single decrease in a stock rate of automobile fuel, and deficiency of corresponding processing capacities. Moreover, the commission on protection to environment has forbidden to use ordinary gasoline along with cleared during an active automobile season in some states and big cities. As a result of it and demand growth (+3,6 % by 2003) the average level of retail prices for gasoline has exceeded psychological level ($2 for gallon). So intense situation in the petrol market on the eve of an automobile season should promote short-term, but to an essential rise in prices for oil.
Recently many experts began to speak, about decrease in degree of influence of the Organization of the countries of manufacturers and exporters of oil (OPEC) on a situation in the oil market, explaining it is growth of a role of independent manufacturers of oil and absence of the co-ordinated policy of the OPEC in a combination to superlimit extraction. We are not inclined to divide this point of view - decisions of oil cartel continue to render direct and considerable influence on the market. We will remind, since 2000 the organisation of petroexporters has established a comprehensible price band $22-28 for barrel. And really the OPEC it was possible to achieve that the average price for crude oil for the New York commodity exchange has made for last 4 years of $29 for barrel. So if the OPEC also is not possible to keep the price for oil within the limits of the declared corridor generally the exit of the prices for corridor limits occurs in interests of cartel. Therefore for understanding of prospects of development of a market situation expediently attentively to trace actions, intentions and statements of representatives of the OPEC. As the organisation of petroexporters continues to carry out rather independent to the policy, despite direct pressure from outside the countries of "the big seven" which insists on increase in manufacture of oil.
Ministers of Energy of member countries of the OPEC have let know that the prices for crude oil above $30 a reality to which it is necessary to get used. So, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, the informal leader of cartel, and the president of OPEC Jusgiantoro declared that the price band in $30-34 for barrel reflects current cost of working out and an oil recovery. Nevertheless, possibly, on conferences in Beirut on June, 3rd the OPEC will react to the offer of Saudi Arabia to increase quotas by an oil recovery on 8,5 % (on 2 million barrels a day). It is considered that the decision of the countries of the organisation of petroexporters on oil extracting increase can is hardly cardinal change a situation in the market as real oil extracting of the countries of the OPEC and without that exceeds a mark of 25 million b./with., and by possibilities on additional increase in extraction are extremely limited. We do not adhere to this point of view, by our estimations one only Saudi Arabia can increase extraction, at preservation of so high price level, to 15 million барр a day, also considerable reserves of expansion of extraction Qatar, Kuwait, Nigeria, Algeria possess. Therefore the cartel is quite capable to increase extraction for reduction of the prices to steadier level.
Situation in the Near East (especially in Iraq) uncertain - after murder of the head of an acting administration it becomes more and more clear that in the near future it is not necessary to expect cardinal improvement and stability. News from Iraq remind fighting reports, and it is obvious that the oil infrastructure of the country is one of the basic targets of terrorists. Pipelines, towers, export terminals were exposed to numerous attacks. Thus, expectations that Iraq in 2004 can leave on premilitary level of extraction and export, oil have not justified. Export of oil of Iraq remains to the extremely astable though comes nearer to 2 million барр. A day (before war exceeded 2,5 million барр. Days).
However the instability zone is not limited to one Iraq - in the beginning of May terrorists of al Kaide have killed some employees of the chemical enterprise of Saudi Arabia. Explosions in Turkey which is the important corridor for oil export on the Mediterranean market, have even more heated conditions. All it promotes growth of fears concerning risk of faults in deliveries of raw materials from the Near East, and also to distribution of threat of terrorism on all new countries. And after all on the countries of the Near East it is necessary about 2/3 proved stocks and approximately 30 % of oil in the world. Therefore the market has put the considerable award to the oil price for instability and risks - we estimate its size in $6-8 on barrel.
It is important to notice that at present high price levels there is also a speculative component (open long positions of large funds) which can reach $2 on barrel. Growth of this component, besides traditional desire of speculators to earn on a hard life, is caused by growth волатильности futures because of the general decrease in stocks of oil.
The award to the price not the unique tool of minimisation of risks of instability - escalating of stocks by the largest countries-importers of oil became the important tendency for the market. The USA according to Bush's instruction after террактов gradually accumulate on September, 11th oil for a strategic reserve which should contain 700 million barrels. China also intends to create reserves and already builds storehouses. However, this escalating of stocks leads now to essential withdrawal of oil and additional demand. In long-term prospect escalating of reserves will lead to strengthening of positions of importers of oil and will allow them to soften sharp fluctuations of the oil prices that should lead to decrease in a speculative component and the award for instability.
On the other hand, the factor promoting a rise in prices for oil, easing of dollar which reduces profit of the countries-exporters of oil is. The dollar is traditional currency for calculation under oil contracts, therefore dollar exchange rate decrease actually leads to decrease in the real price for oil. So a present price level in $40 for barrel considerably below an oil ceiling price in real expression at the height of war in Persian gulf when the oil prices in the comparable prices exceeded $70.
The carried out analysis of a situation in the oil market allows to answer questions - the present price for oil and what prospects of its growth/falling is how much steady.
We consider that the present record price level is not to steady in intermediate term and long-term prospect. It has more likely short-term character and is caused by set of "the bull factors" - a time intense situation in the American market of gasoline, prompt, but unstable growth of demand for oil from outside China, not quite well-founded decrease in quotas of the OPEC in April, the award for uncertainty of a situation in the Near East, withdrawal of oil for replenishment of reserves and a speculative component. However, during the summer period and partly the fourth quarter "the bull" factors set forth above will keep the value and the prices, in our opinion, remain high enough ($35 for barrel). And further we expect returning of the prices to steadier level in $30-34 for barrel which besides corresponds to the declared reference points of the OPEC.
Material source: ИК "Fajnenshl the Bridge"
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